A recent poll has revealed significant shifts in the race for the White House, with Vice President Kamala Harris gaining strong backing from women, including older voters and political independents. According to the poll, Harris leads independent women by a 28-point margin, while women aged 65 and older favor her by a 2-to-1 margin (63% to 28%).
Harris Gaining Ground Among Women and Independents The Iowa Poll, conducted by respected pollster Ann Selzer, highlights a notable trend: independent women are breaking decisively toward Harris. This shift could have major implications for the 2024 election, as the female voter demographic remains one of the most crucial groups for both candidates.
Political analyst Kyle Kondik, from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, commented on the significance of the poll, calling it a “final polling curveball” that adds another layer of complexity to an already unpredictable race. While Kondik believes Harris is unlikely to win Iowa, he notes that the poll could provide valuable insights into trends across the Midwest, potentially foreshadowing broader national shifts.
Trump Struggling to Expand His Support Base While Harris is making gains, former President Donald Trump’s campaign appears to be faltering. Pollster Cornell Belcher, who worked on both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, pointed out that Trump is struggling to attract voters beyond his existing base—something that could hurt him in a race with high voter turnout. Belcher remarked that Trump's failure to expand his support, even in traditionally red states like Iowa, suggests he may not be closing the race as strongly as he needs to.
Belcher emphasized that, with limited appeal outside of his core followers, Trump may face challenges securing victory in 2024, particularly if voter turnout increases. “Trump is not performing well, even in places where he should be performing well,” Belcher said. "Has he been able to grow beyond his ceiling? There is very little evidence out there."
Trump Responds to Poll with Criticism Trump quickly dismissed the Iowa Poll, calling it unreliable in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social. He argued that “all polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats,” have shown him ahead, particularly in key battleground states like Iowa. However, Selzer, the pollster behind the survey, defended the findings, noting that the same methodology had accurately predicted Trump’s Iowa victory in the past two elections.
Harris and Trump Campaigning Across Swing States As the 2024 election draws closer, both candidates are intensifying their campaigns across swing states. Harris, whose rally speeches have painted Trump as a threat to national security, recently warned that another Trump presidency would pose significant risks to America’s future. She even took the stage on Saturday Night Live to lighten the mood, emphasizing the need to leave Trump’s era behind.
Trump, in contrast, has maintained a combative tone, repeatedly blaming Harris for inflation and poor border security. His rallies have drawn attention for his controversial remarks, including bizarre gestures and threats against political opponents. These antics, along with his repeated false claims about the 2020 election being stolen, continue to dominate media coverage.
Focus on Issues and Suburban Voters Trump’s focus on divisive issues, such as transgender healthcare and his inflammatory rhetoric, may be alienating suburban voters who did not support him in 2020. Belcher suggests that Trump’s campaign has yet to expand its appeal to key demographics—particularly suburban women and independents—who will be pivotal in swing states.
Meanwhile, Harris's steady rise in the polls is seen as a result of strong support from these groups, particularly women and older voters, who are now more likely to back her in large numbers. Belcher predicts that Harris will benefit from higher voter turnout in 2024, which may put her in a strong position to secure a victory.
Looking Ahead: Uncertain Polling and Election Outcomes Although the Iowa Poll and other recent surveys show Harris with momentum, political analysts caution that the race remains fluid. Kondik advises treating the election as a “toss-up,” given the unpredictable nature of polling and the potential for late shifts in voter sentiment. Other polling trends in states like Kansas, Nebraska, and Ohio suggest similar shifts toward Harris, but the impact on swing states remains uncertain.
In conclusion, while the latest polls suggest that Kamala Harris is gaining ground, particularly among key voter groups, the race for the White House is still wide open. With both candidates campaigning aggressively and focusing on key issues, the 2024 election promises to be one of the most closely watched in U.S. history.
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